As the strategic rivalry between the United States and China continues to intensify, Europe is increasingly becoming a key battleground for influence. While the main focus of this competition is usually seen in the domains of trade, technology, and security within Western Europe, a less expected arena may soon become central: the Western Balkans. At the heart of this region lies Serbia, a country whose unique geopolitical position and deliberate balancing between East and West make it a potential flashpoint in the unfolding global contest. Serbia is not only a candidate for European Union membership, but also a country that has cultivated deep political, economic, and even military ties with China. This dual orientation places Belgrade in a sensitive position as Washington seeks to curb Chinese influence in Europe and as Beijing expands its Belt and Road Initiative across the continent.
Serbia as China’s Gateway to Europe
Over the last decade, Serbia has emerged as one of China’s most important partners in Europe. Chinese companies have invested billions of euros across key sectors of the Serbian economy, ranging from mining and metallurgy to infrastructure and digital technology. The acquisition of the Bor copper mine by Zijin Mining, the purchase of the Smederevo steel mill by HBIS, the Linglong tire factory in Zrenjanin, and the JMEV electric car project are all emblematic of Beijing’s growing economic footprint in Serbia.
Beyond heavy industry, Chinese capital has flowed into strategic infrastructure projects, including highways, bridges, and power plants, often financed through Chinese loans and built by Chinese contractors such as PowerChina. In the digital realm, Huawei has become a central player in developing Serbia’s telecommunications infrastructure, while Alibaba Cloud and other firms are exploring avenues in e-commerce and cloud services.
The cumulative effect of these investments is striking: Chinese companies reportedly extract more than one billion euros in annual profits from Serbia. For Beijing, Serbia is not only a profitable investment destination but also a strategic platform for accessing the wider European market. Situated at the crossroads of Southeast Europe, Serbia provides a logistical hub through projects like the Belgrade–Budapest high-speed railway, which, once completed, will facilitate the flow of Chinese goods into the EU. In this sense, Serbia is increasingly seen in Beijing as a “gateway to Europe.”
Military and Security Dimension
Perhaps even more controversial than the economic partnership is the emerging military and security cooperation between Serbia and China. Belgrade has become the first European country to conduct joint military exercises with the Chinese People’s Liberation Army. Moreover, Serbia has procured significant Chinese military hardware, including FK-3 surface-to-air missile systems, CH-92A and CH-95 drones, and HQ-9 air defense technologies.
Such acquisitions are particularly sensitive in the eyes of NATO and the EU, given that Serbia is surrounded by NATO member states while itself declaring military neutrality. The presence of Chinese drones and missile systems in the Balkans is interpreted in Washington as a potential security breach that could undermine NATO’s technological superiority in the region.
In addition to formal military cooperation, recent incidents have heightened concerns in Western capitals about Serbia’s role in the broader U.S.–China rivalry. Chinese national Cui Guanghai and British citizen John Miller—both wanted by the United States on charges of espionage and illegal trafficking of military technology—disappeared from house arrest in Belgrade after removing their electronic monitoring devices. Their escape highlighted weaknesses in Serbian law enforcement and raised concerns that Serbia might serve as a gray zone for actors involved in sensitive China-linked operations. For Washington, such cases reinforce the perception that Beijing may be using Serbia not only as an economic and military partner, but also as a safe haven for individuals engaged in intelligence and technology transfer activities.
Serbia has also engaged in police cooperation with China, including joint patrols in Serbian cities aimed at protecting Chinese citizens. Although framed as a practical measure, some Western policymakers view this collaboration as a symbol of China’s growing influence in Europe’s security architecture.
Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić attended the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in early September, meeting with the Chinese President and demonstrating continued engagement with Beijing. Observers speculate that Vučić aimed to secure new Chinese investments in Serbia and obtain additional loans. By contrast, his recent visit to Florida did not result in a meeting with President Donald Trump, despite Vučić’s public statements that such a meeting would take place, and the reasons remain unclear.
Meanwhile, a recent meeting between Serbian diplomat Marko Đurić and U.S. official Marco Rubio signaled the start of a strategic dialogue between the U.S. and Serbia. At the same time, Serbia continues to face some of the highest tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, even though the Trump family maintains private business arrangements in Belgrade in cooperation with the Serbian government.
Massive protests by students and citizens have been ongoing in Serbia for months, following the collapse of the Novi Sad railway station canopy, which killed 16 people and had been rebuilt by a Chinese company. The demonstrations have shaken President Vučić’s administration, and some observers view them as part of a broader geopolitical struggle among major powers over Serbia
Serbia’s Balancing Act
The central feature of Serbian foreign policy under President Aleksandar Vučić has been a deliberate balancing act between global powers. On the one hand, Serbia seeks accession to the European Union, its largest economic partner and source of financial aid. On the other, it relies on Chinese investments for economic growth and on Chinese diplomatic support in the United Nations, especially regarding the sensitive issue of Kosovo.
Belgrade has also maintained strong ties with Russia, particularly in the energy sector, while simultaneously cultivating pragmatic relations with the United States. This multi-vector diplomacy allows Serbia to maximize benefits from all sides, but it also exposes the country to growing pressures. The EU frequently criticizes Serbia for failing to align with European foreign policy, especially in relation to sanctions on Russia. Washington, for its part, has warned Belgrade about the dangers of relying too heavily on Chinese investments.
This strategy of balancing is sustainable only as long as the global rivalry remains relatively controlled. However, as U.S.–China tensions escalate, Serbia may find it increasingly difficult to maintain its equidistance.
The U.S. Perspective
From Washington’s point of view, Chinese influence in Serbia represents a direct challenge to Western strategic interests in Europe. The Balkans are seen as a vulnerable region where Beijing could establish a long-term foothold in both economic and military terms. American officials have repeatedly expressed concern over the purchase of Chinese weapons by Serbia, and there have been calls for Belgrade to reconsider its defense partnerships.
Moreover, the U.S. has taken broader measures to counter Chinese influence in Europe, including tariffs, restrictions on Chinese technology, and diplomatic efforts to persuade European allies to exclude Huawei from their 5G networks. Serbia, however, does not fall neatly into this Western security architecture, and its openness to Chinese technology and capital is therefore particularly alarming to Washington.
At the same time, the U.S. recognizes Serbia’s importance as a regional leader and has sought to strengthen bilateral ties, offering economic partnerships and supporting Serbia’s EU integration path. Yet these efforts are complicated by Belgrade’s persistent reluctance to distance itself from Beijing.
Conclusion
Serbia occupies a unique and precarious position in today’s shifting global order. As a candidate for EU membership and a country surrounded by NATO states, it is formally part of the Western geopolitical space. Yet its deep and expanding ties with China—economic, political, and increasingly military—place it at odds with U.S. and EU efforts to limit Beijing’s influence in Europe.
Whether by design or necessity, Serbia has become a testing ground for how far Chinese influence can extend into Europe and how the U.S. will respond. The outcome of this struggle will not only shape Serbia’s future but could also serve as a microcosm of the broader U.S.–China rivalry. The key question is whether Belgrade can continue to balance its commitments without being forced into a decisive choice. For now, Serbia remains at the crossroads—both geographically and geopolitically—of the greatest power struggle of the 21st century.